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Author Topic: Windows (DaaS)  (Read 1448 times)

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Online VinDSL

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #15 on: August 25, 2018, 11:21:52 pm »
n/m

I just looked at the Microsoft Azure/Office 365 (admin) deployment interface. It's going to be impossible to use Thunderbird for a mail client.

Alrighty, then. Only way I can MFA is via Office 365 on Peppermint or boot into the winders 10 side and use Office 2016.

Anyway, we got it covered with Whisker Menu.  8)

Offline scifidude79

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2018, 03:04:29 am »
Let's hear it for LIbreoffice!  (seriously, love that suite)

Office 365 is a giant rip-off, even more so than paying a one time fee for Office (formerly Works) in the first place. But, you can't really blame Microsoft for that. Blame the businesses and even individuals willing to pay for a subscription to their crap software. They get by with charging what they do and locking out other software because people let them. It seems people are willing to pay whatever dumb fees and put up with their crap. Why? I don't know.

However, I reiterate, nobody but the most die hard Windows users would be willing to pay a monthly fee just for the "privilege" of turning on their computer. And, even those wonderful people might have a hard time justifying it.

Though, I wouldn't be surprised to see them offer some kind of paid update service. It's similar to how game companies are ripping off gamers dumb enough to pay for paid updates. (that are usually offered later, in an all in one package with the original game at a lower price than if you buy it all individually) That I could see them doing. But, not a subscription just to use Windows. If they were that dumb, it would be the end for them.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2018, 03:06:17 am by scifidude79 »

Online PCNetSpec

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2018, 07:23:40 am »
Selling subscription services to businesses is the modern model .. from a business perspective it (feels like it) entitles them to support, spreads costs, and can drop out any time they like.

Home users .. well I don't think Microsoft care about them any more, they're pretty much giving away Win10 and Win10S, and I suspect the amount it costs them to keep all the support services going (support, advertising, registration lines, etc.) and the fact that home users have shown they generally NEVER upgrade their OS until they buy a new PC, make Windows in the home not worth much.

Think about it .. Does Microsoft really make that much money from each OEM license, when you factor in development costs and all the services they have to continuously supply for the 5-6 year life span of the PC ?
(specially in an ever shrinking market)

I get the feeling the only thing Microsoft now care about in the home is the ONLY growing sector in that market .. IoT.

Wouldn't it make MUCH more sense to provide a Linux OS for IoT devices (which will eventually WAY outnumber Desktops/Laptop in the home), they don't have to pay much in the way of development costs (it's done for them), but make security (the big worry surrounding IoT) dependent on a proprietary codec. Microsoft are ALREADY pushing this, and it's most likely why they "Love Linux", are engaging with kernel development, and are in such a rush to include Linux development tools in the Windows, so they can sell it (as a subscription) to businesses as development platform for their Linux IoT OS.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again .. I don't think Windows will be around for much longer (as a HOME OS), it's simply no longer the money spinner it once was and will eventually bbecome a burden (if it isn't already).

Microsoft simply won't care about loosing "home" (Windows) users if they aren't willing to pay for it via subscription .. if that's the only way to make it pay.
(have they dropped "Xbox Live" as a subscription service because of the Playstation .. NO, it either pays for itself or can die, simple as)

IMHO Windows 10 exists purely to keep users engaged whilst they get their online subscription services and IoT ducks lined up .. heck they're giving it away.

I've often heard people say "Microsoft won't forego Windows .. it's too big". But that's its downfall, it requires a HUGE financial commitment that is ever growing, and yet the market is (rapidly) shrinking and people are holding onto old version of Windows for as long as they can (even when Microsoft GIVE AWAY the new version).

People also said the same thing about SCO / Sun Microsystems / Novell / etc. / etc. .. We'll leave the Roman and British empires out of it this time eh! :))

Windows is already dead, and Microsoft will only flog a dead horse for as long as it helps them leverage other markets .. they are after all a business, who's shareholders are never satisfied with "maintaining" a market (let alone an ever shrinking one), shareholders are in it to MAKE money (not to just maintain it) they DEMAND growth, and the home desktop is NOT a growth sector.

The Achilles heal of any corporation is that investment only occurs whilst in the ascendant .. stop GROWING, and shareholders move their money elsewhere VERY quickly indeed .. it's why they collapse so spectacularly when it happens. I'm not saying Microsoft are going to collapse, but they're smart enough to realise Windows is no longer a reliable income generator so they're busy moving on.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2018, 08:15:48 am by PCNetSpec »
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Offline murraymint

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #18 on: August 26, 2018, 07:36:48 am »
^ That's pretty much the way I see it. The business users are already hooked in through the Office 365 model. If M$ tighten the screw most of them will feel compelled to pay up just to keep going.



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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #19 on: August 26, 2018, 08:12:22 am »
I've actually came across a few small business built around google docs instead of ms office  ;D
In most cases libreoffice would be a perfect replacement.
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Offline scifidude79

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #20 on: August 26, 2018, 09:31:36 am »
I've found businesses like to throw money at useless stuff, as opposed to stuff that makes sense. Case in point: at work, they changed all of the soap dispensers in the store the other day. Why? I don't know. They all worked, they dispensed soap. Replacing them had to cost money. Meanwhile, we have stuff that's falling apart that they won't replace. That's how I see paid software vs free software. In most cases, the amount they spend on Windows and Microsoft office could easily be re-routed to something more useful, by simply changing to Linux and Libreoffice. Linux and Libreoffice can't be that difficult to switch to. My mom worked in offices for years and, whenever they changed the software, the new stuff had to be learned. It didn't matter what it was, it had to be learned. Even jumping from one version of Windows business and office software to the next requires some learning. Businesses just don't see it.

As for Windows Home, I suspect it's actually the OEMs that are keeping that alive more so than Microsoft. They need something to put on new computers, and Bill Gates sold them all on Windows. So, they're in over their heads, buying licenses to put on new machines because it's what their users know. Some have tried going to Chrome OS, a few others have even gone as bold as to try Ubuntu, but most stick with what has sold computers for them for over 20 years. When Microsoft finally does away with Windows Home, it will be interesting to see what happens to home computers. OEMs are going to have to scramble to find other operating systems to use. And, it's not like they can just drop lucrative sales from laptops, as everyone knows that tablets are OK, but they can't perform all of the same functions as a PC, but a laptop is more versatile.

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #21 on: August 26, 2018, 10:19:37 am »
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« Last Edit: August 27, 2018, 11:16:13 pm by The PoorGuy »

Online PCNetSpec

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2018, 10:44:07 am »
Windows OS will always be in the home and business world.

This is the "it's too big to fail" thinking I was talking about.

The truth is Windows will ONLY be around as long as its existence can be shown to cause share prices to RISE (not even stay static) .. you only have to look at what happened to Windows RT, after a $1billion+ was pumped into its development (or down the drain depending on perspective) shareholders forced them to pull the plug.
(Windows Mobile/Phone also springs to mind)

It has nothing to do with what people are used to (or even want, unless they're willing to pay for it) .. what matters is ONLY if it's financially viable (AND it doesn't distract from investment in other more lucrative markets such as IoT).

And...

Quote
The world runs on Windows OS and Windows OS is what most everyone uses and is comfortable using and it ain't going to change.

you're wrong .. Microsoft no longer has a monopoly on home computing, the VAST majority of that is now done on phones, tablets, and smart TV's (soon to be IoT devices) .. home users are MORE THAN EVER aware there are option other than Windows PC's.

If they still had a monopoly, you can bet your bottom dollar Windows 10 wouldn't have been free .. instead it's a stop gap measure to keep you interested whilst they move to something else.

Or are you under the impression Microsoft investors will continue to finance the billions of dollars they spend on the development of an OS (and support services) that they're having to give away simply to maintain interest in what is an ever shrinking market ? .. it's unsustainable (and Microsoft are WELL aware of it, hence the new sales model and shift to IoT proprietary security lock in).

Microsoft don't make Windows for users .. they make it for shareholders.

Heck Microsoft have already said "Windows is now on the back burner".
« Last Edit: August 26, 2018, 11:42:16 am by PCNetSpec »
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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2018, 12:11:41 pm »
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« Last Edit: August 27, 2018, 11:15:49 pm by The PoorGuy »

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #24 on: August 26, 2018, 12:42:18 pm »
I think you're missing my point...

Sure Windows is on most Desktops/Laptops NOW .. but that market is shrinking to where it will no longer be a viable business proposition.

At which point Microsoft will stop making it .. end of story.

Doesn't matter what people want (unless they're willing to pay for it) Micrrosoft will drop it when it no longer pays .. it's my contention that this point has already been reached and the only reason Win10 exists is to transition the business model to something else.

If "being everywhere" at a given moment in time meant you were invulnerable to a changing world .. we'd all be talking Latin, and wearing toga's ;)
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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #25 on: August 26, 2018, 01:08:26 pm »
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« Last Edit: August 27, 2018, 11:15:33 pm by The PoorGuy »

Offline scifidude79

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #26 on: August 26, 2018, 06:43:43 pm »
I work in a store that sells computers. We have a few Windows desktops, a variety of Windows laptops, and a few Chromebooks. However, about half of our computer department is tablets, mainly Android. We have a few iPads, but not anywhere near as many as we do Android. Android runs on the Linux kernel. We also sell phones, mainly Android and some iPhones. Go back 20 years, to when I was computer shopping, and it was nothing but Windows computers in stores. (except a few selling Apple computers) So, yes, Microsoft's monopoly is over. They were stuck in Windows 7, which was never designed to run on the smaller processors and RAM of a tablet, to say nothing of taking up too much space for the internal memory of those devices, during their rise in popularity. They were there while Android and iOS rose to take their place. So, PCNetSpec is right, the Windows days are coming to an end. The theory that Windows will always be there comes from the perception that they have no real competition in the PC market. Google has Chromebooks, which have made a footprint, but they have serious limitations. If Google released a real desktop OS that could do everything offline, and was offered on computers with decent specs and a good amount of memory, I think it would do well. People are looking for an alternative to Windows 10, but most are too scared to try desktop Linux. Most of the people I know who use Windows 10 like it all right, but nobody loves it. People loved XP and, to a slightly lesser extent, 7. However, Microsoft did the dumb move of firing everyone who worked on 7 after it was released, which is what started them on their downward spiral to where they are now.

Realistically, gamers are keeping Windows alive, but it's on life support. A lot of gaming is even being done on Android devices now. Sure, the games are more simple than AAA desktop games, but most people don't care. They're games they can carry in their pocket that don't need a beast of a desktop to run.

On a stupidly funny note, I was watching Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation the other night. I laughed at the fact that everyone on the IMF team appeared to be using Windows phones. I love how Microsoft had a huge product placement thing going with those, to where they appeared in a lot of movies and TV shows, but they still failed hard. The few people I knew who ever owned one said they were terrible.

If they still had a monopoly, you can bet your bottom dollar Windows 10 wouldn't have been free .. instead it's a stop gap measure to keep you interested whilst they move to something else.

Indeed. I remember when that move was announced, we discussed it and thought there was a catch to it. But, as we now know, there was no catch. Windows 8/8.1 was terrible. They were literally bleeding users to Linux, or people were going back to 7. They had to do something to apply a bandage to that gaping wound, and Windows 10 was that bandage. But, a bandage doesn't always stop the bleeding, nor does it do anything to cure the problem. It's a temporary measure.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2018, 06:51:55 pm by scifidude79 »

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #27 on: August 27, 2018, 11:27:54 am »
Here are the reasons I think Microsoft WILL move Windows to a subscription (DaaS) model...

I tried to work out Microsoft's costs for supporting a "one off payment" model (for a fully locally installed OS), well it turns out it's impossible to know .. BUT .. consider this...

An OEM licence costs you what when you buy a new PC ? .. let's say 50 - 70

People are now sticking with the originally installed OS for the lifetime of the PC, which is what? .. say 5 years (?) .. so for 10 - 14 per annum they have to cover:-
Freephone registration lines
Support lines
Wages of the people to man those support lines
Patching/Update infrastructure (technical - servers, backbone internet connection fees, etc.)
Wages of people to write those patches/updates
Building maintenance & purchase.
Utility costs
all that on top of recovering the original development costs.
etc.

Now this may all have made sense when there were billions of licenses sold each year (as those costs are pretty static), but none of those costs shrink when sales do .. and sales have shrunk MASSIVELY.

On top of that they're forced (to an extent) to support pirate copies, or pay for the development of ways to lock pirate copies out of the support structure.

A subscription (DaaS) model (with modules loaded from their servers .. similar to your PC being a thin client) is the only way to absolutely ensure infrastructure and other costs scale in a way that matches sales.

Think of everyone else that's done this (for the same reasons), Adobe (Photoshop etc.), the car support industry (Autodata, Bosch, etc.), Finance packages (Sage, Intuit - Quicken/Quickbooks, etc.), Autodesk (AutoCAD, etc.), Microsoft's own software/infrastructure (Office, Azure, etc.) the list goes on and on....

There are currently only two ways (I can think of) that ENSURE costs match sales (which is a MUST in a shrinking market, specially when trying to satisfy shareholder expectations/questions):-

1) Subscription.
2) To gain revenue by other means (such as user data sales, or advertising revenue)   <-- Windows 10 right ? - But Microsoft realise this isn't sustainable, as it drives people away and the numbers shrink to where the model no longer works (lower number = lower advertising income leverage, and less data to sell), and any business model that relies too heavily for its income from third parties is not only inherently risky but a hard sell to investors.

Sure, subscription comes with MASSIVE risk (to user numbers) - Will people be willing to pay it?

But at the end of the day in a shrinking market there comes a point where it's the ONLY model that can be proven to cover its own costs irrespective of scale .. it doesn't matter how many people leave (they're not the ones that pay anyway), as long as enough stay to cover original development costs, all other costs are ensured.

Original development costs .. Well Microsoft have already said "Windows 10 will be the last version" .. to me this means they're even takeing the risk associated with recovering original development costs out of the equation. As a kind of "rolling release" there will no longer be any original development costs that have to be recouped, the pace and amount of rolling development can be scaled to match subscription income.

Microsoft are busy removing the risk from Windows .. which pretty much by definition shows it to be a dying market.

They're now putting the risk (and therefore prospect of greatest gain) into services and IoT via Linux .. this is where the future lies (Windows is the past).

[EDIT]

Will this spell the death  of Windows?

Of course it won't. business will be happy to absorb the higher costs. After some initial bitching they'll likely see the ability to spread costs, not having to share support resources with home users, a more business focussed Windows, and possibly issues that can be fixed at the server end by Microsoft themselves (in stead of having to pay third parties or minimising in-house tech staff) as a BONUS.

Home users - well whether they will be willing to pay a subscription remains to be seen .. but at the end of the day they don't matter if they're not the ones that are paying.

It certainly won't mean the death of Microsoft .. they'd continue to please shareholders for the next 50 years if they stopped doing ANYTHING besides live off their patent portfolio .. and that's as RISK FREE as the subscription model from the shareholders perspective ;)
(In established industries, shareholders ALWAYS drive to minimised risk).
« Last Edit: August 27, 2018, 12:33:47 pm by PCNetSpec »
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Offline christianvl

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Re: Windows (DaaS)
« Reply #28 on: August 27, 2018, 12:24:30 pm »
Quote
Sure, subscription comes with MASSIVE risk - Will people be willing to pay it?

MS will try to sweeten this deal. As they do with Office, they'll probably offer more cloud space, some security feature, and some other privileges. Maybe they'll even tie Windows and Office subscriptions together. However, I don't think they'll remove a "free" version of Windows. They'll offer it with less features, but it will not matter.

The money has moved. It's in the services, not the product.

I'm a Peppermint fan because of ICE and I do most of my stuff online. E-mail, documents, notes, tasks, projects and so on. Everything is goning online. It won't really matter your OS. MS knows it and is moving forward. Maybe the next Windows will be an Edge browser with ICE. Cheap computers and fast system that does what most users needs (Chrome OS).
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